The gap is narrowing in battleground states as the election approaches. Both candidates and their running mates have been campaigning relentlessly in the key battleground states which will determine the outcome of this election.
States that can swing the election either way include Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania is especially important for both candidates with 20 electoral votes up for grabs. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, the first time it voted red since 1988. Biden is narrowly leading in polls in Pennsylvania, but if he were to lose the state, he would have to find 11 electoral votes elsewhere.
Other states that Trump won in 2016 but are showing Biden ahead in polls are Arizona (11 electoral votes) and North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Republicans have relied on Arizona for the past two decades. The last time the state voted Democrat was in 1996. In 2016, Trump won the state by 3.5% points, the most narrowly a candidate has one Arizona in twenty years, and is currently trailing Biden by 1 percentage point in polls.
North Carolina, another state where both candidates have been campaigning aggressively, is tightening. It is neck-and-neck, and though Trump won its’ 15 electoral votes in 2016, more college-educated newcomers have settled into the suburbs, which gives Biden an edge.
If Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and either Arizona or North Carolina, he would have at least 290 electoral votes, 20 more than the 270 needed to win.
Florida is another key battleground state with 29 electoral votes up for grabs, which Trump is heavily counting on for even a chance at another four years of being president. It is almost impossible for Trump to win without Florida. Polls have been showing a very tight race, and some even have Biden up by a few percentage points. Trump and his family have been heavily campaigning in the swing-state to ensure he has a shot at winning.
Even if Trump wins Florida, and every battleground state he won in 2016, he would also need Pennsylvania to reach the 270 threshold. He held four rallies in Pennsylvania just on Saturday, and has more scheduled till Election Day. Biden, too, has been campaigning in Pennsylvania.
Surveys indicate that the majority of those who have voted early through mail or in-person have voted for Biden, and those who plan to do so on election day are voting for Trump. Although polls and models are predicting a Biden victory, the outcome of voters on Tuesday could prove that wrong.